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My 2018 Oscar Predictions (Now Updated With Winners!)

March 3, 2018

By John Corrado

Update: Well, I got 16 out of 24 correct.  Not as good as I had hoped, but not too shabby, either.  I’m happy with a lot of the winners, even if the show itself was wildly overlong and pretty average.  It’s awesome that The Shape of Water took home Best Picture, and I’m thrilled that Guillermo Del Toro is now an Oscar winner.  The acting categories went exactly the way that I expected them to, and that’s fine by me.  The best surprise was Jordan Peele taking home Original Screenplay for Get Out.  And Coco won for both Animated Feature and Original Song!  That’s all I really have to add.

There are a lot of really tight races at the Oscars this year, which is a good thing in that it will make tomorrow’s ceremony more interesting and exciting to watch, but it’s also making it more frustrating in terms of trying to predict who will win in all 24 categories.

Then again, who could have predicted what happened last year, with La La Land being mistakenly announced as Best Picture, before Moonlight was crowned the rightful winner?  It’s up for debate which way some of these categories will go, but here are my guesses for who will take home the gold this year.  You can find the full list of nominees on IMDb right here.

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – It’s between this and The Shape of Water, and it’s still anyone’s guess at this point which one will prevail, but I’m predicting that it will be TIFF People’s Choice Award winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri due to the timely subject matter and stellar performances.  If there’s a spoiler, it will be Get Out.  For the record, my personal vote would go to Lady Bird, since my favourite movie of last year The Florida Project wasn’t even nominated. (ACTUAL WINNER: The Shape of Water)

Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour – If you’ve seen the film then you’ll know why he’s been dominating awards season and is the odds-on favourite to win here.  The actor is phenomenal as Winston Churchill, and it’s the type of transformation that Oscar voters love. (WINNER)

Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – I’m fairly certain that the Fargo actress will win her second Oscar for her searing portrayal of a mother’s grief turning to anger.  There is a slight chance of I, Tonya‘s Margot Robbie or Lady Bird‘s Saoirse Ronan pulling an upset, but McDormand is the clear frontrunner.(WINNER)

Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – There’s still a small chance that Willem Dafoe will be the surprise winner for his remarkable work in The Florida Project, and I would obviously be thrilled if that happened.  But Rockwell was tasked with delivering a complex character arc as a racist cop written purely in shades of grey, and it was positively thrilling to watch him in the role, so I’m predicting that he will prevail.  It’s the type of role actors dream of. (WINNER)

Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney, I, Tonya – It’s between her and Laurie Metcalf who played a very different type of mother in Lady Bird.  But Allison Janney stole every scene of I, Tonya as the abusive and foul-mouthed matriarch, and it was impossible to look away from her. (WINNER)

Animated (Feature): Coco – This is Pixar’s to lose, and the frontrunner also happens to be my favourite of the bunch.  I liked all of the nominees, but how could this not win? (WINNER)

Cinematography: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 – I keep going back and forth in my mind on whether Roger Deakins will finally win for Blade Runner 2049, or if the Academy will give this to Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk.  It’s a tough call.  Either one could win, and either one would deserve it, but I’m going to go with Deakins this time around. (WINNER)

Costume Design: Phantom Thread – It’s a film about dressmaking, filled with gorgeous designs, so I think it’s a safe bet that the costume designers will spring for this one. (WINNER)

Directing: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water – While I still think that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has a very good shot at winning Best Picture, I’m predicting that everyone’s favourite Mexican filmmaker turned honorary Torontonian will take home the directing prize for his magical interspecies romance.  As for Christopher Nolan, Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele and Paul Thomas Anderson, I’m just happy that they were all nominated. (WINNER)

– Documentary (Feature): Faces Places – If voters are looking for something more serious then they will likely opt for Icarus, but I’m expecting this audience favourite feel good film to win, which would make co-director Agnes Varda the oldest Oscar winner ever at 89 years old. (ACTUAL WINNER: Icarus)

Film Editing: Dunkirk – I’m feeling like Baby Driver could pull off an upset here, with every one of the action scenes and car chases cut in time to music, so I wouldn’t count it out either.  But conventional wisdom says that Dunkirk will win, since it makes interesting use of timelines, was an early Oscar favourite, and war movies often win in this category. (WINNER)

– Foreign Language Film: The Square – While Chile’s A Fantastic Woman has a good chance of winning, it was also a little overrated in my book, so I’m going with Sweden’s Palme d’Or winner. (ACTUAL WINNER: A Fantastic Woman)

Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour – This is the type of work that seems practically destined to win an Oscar.  Gary Oldman was almost unrecognizable in the film, and the way that the makeup team transformed him into Churchill through the use of prosthetics was seamless. (WINNER)

Music (Original Score): Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water – I would be delighted if Jonny Greenwood won this for Phantom Thread, but Alexandre Desplat seems to be the favourite here, and his contributions to the film were lovely. (WINNER)

Music (Original Song): “Remember Me” from Coco – Finding this category really hard to predict this year.  It’s down to “Remember Me” from Coco and “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman, but either one could easily win.  They are both memorably used within their films, and are both from popular songwriting pairs who have won before, with the former credited to Frozen composers Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez and the latter written by La La Land songwriters Benji Pasek and Justin Paul, who just won last year.  But “Remember Me” is masterfully woven into the narrative of Coco, and it made me cry, so I’m giving it a leg up here. (WINNER)

Production Design: The Shape of Water – It’s a Guillermo Del Toro film, so of course the production design was astounding, and I think it’s going to be nicely awarded. (WINNER)

Sound Editing: Dunkirk – The use of sound in the film to put us right in the middle of a war zone all but ensures that this will one in at least one of these always elusive categories. (WINNER)

– Sound Mixing: Baby Driver – I’m predicting there will be another split between the two categories, and there will be a lot of respect for how the songs were mixed in with the other sounds in this film. (ACTUAL WINNER: Dunkirk)

– Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes – The majority of the characters in the film were brought to life through stunning visual effects, and this will also be a good consolation prize for Andy Serkis not getting nominated for his stellar performance. (ACTUAL WINNER: Blade Runner 2049)

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name – I personally liked the other nominees better, but Call Me By Your Name has a lot of passionate supporters and James Ivory is a veteran of the industry, so the odds are heavily in his favour. (WINNER)

– Writing (Original Screenplay): Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – If the academy wants to acknowledge more diverse choices, this would be the perfect chance to award Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird or Jordan Peele’s Get Out, both masterful scripts in their own right.  But Martin McDonagh’s script for Three Billboards has a masterfully handled mix of tones, and is filled with crackling dialogue, so I’m thinking it will triumph here. (ACTUAL WINNER: Jordan Peele, Get Out)

Short Film (Animated): Dear Basketball – Pixar’s Lou is the only one that I’ve seen, but former Disney animator Glen Keane’s Dear Basketball sounds like the favourite to win and Kobe Bryant will be there to take the stage, because the #MeToo movement clearly hasn’t caught up to him yet… (WINNER)

Short Film (Live Action): DeKalb Elementary – I haven’t seen any of the nominees, but this short inspired by a real life 911 call made by a school shooter seems like it will resonate with recent events. (ACTUAL WINNER: The Silent Child)

Documentary (Short Subject): Edith+Eddie – Again, I haven’t seen any of the films.  So I’m just guessing based on the descriptions, and this one sounds like a winner. (ACTUAL WINNER: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405)

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